Context for 10X – Enabler for a global, digital disruption

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Context for 10X – Enabler for a global, digital disruption

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reveal_10x

A reveal.js slide deck about 10x ideas and the 6Ds of exponentials

On Github dpdornseifer / reveal_10x

Context for 10X

Created by David Dornseifer

Questions

  • What general challenges do you see in the future?
  • What might be the biggest disruption in general?
  • What might be the biggest disruption for our business?

Frameworks

Gartner's 2015 Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies

“The complexity for minimum component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year. Certainly over the short term this rate can be expected to continue, if not to increase. Over the longer term, the rate of increase is a bit more uncertain, although there is no reason to believe it will not remain nearly constant for at least 10 years. ”

Moors Law V1.0 1965

  • Fixed it to double every two years in 1975
  • Not just computational power
  • Storage

Peter Diamandis (Singularity University)

Way to think about exponential technologies and how the affect our world Want you to see the process from a slightly different perspective Digitized: Becomes exponentially empowered, starts to grow at an exponential rate Digitized: Pretty much everything is digital today, bio, finance ... Deceptive: Exponential growth unnoticed (truegerisch) - kodak 0.001 / 0.002 -- 10 Disruptive: Innovation that creates a new market and disrupts the old - netflix vs. dvd Verleih Dematerialize: Vanishing of goods / Apps (Navi, Music, Camera), Cloud Computing Demonetize: Taking the money out of the equation (Craigslist, skype, amazon, Google research) Democratize: Costs drop and are available to everyone (New marketplaces, explode ) Democratize: the world of electronic trading (platforms)

Enabler for a global, digital disruption

  • Computational Power
  • Global Connectivity
  • Free, global Learning
  • Cheap, free Infrastructure
  • Open Source

Computational Power

  • Moors law does not just apply for CPUs
  • "Intel's new non-volatile storage chip is 1.000 times faster than flash memory" (Intel)

Global Connectivity

  • Google delivers 'internet' whith baloons (Google)
  • Facebook with solar powered planes (Facebook)
  • Bandwidth of at least 1MBit
  • 3.5b until 2020 / 7b until 2025

Learning of the Future

  • Free education is available for everyone (everywhere)
  • LearnTech
  • Coursera (free MOOCs)
  • Udacity (comercial)
  • Learning a language, job, basic education
  • Coursera
  • MIT / Stanford ...
  • On avg. 43,000 students
  • 6.5% til the end
  • ~10% interact with course material til end

Cheap/free Cloud Solutions

  • Cloud computing prices convert to zero (WSJ)
  • Cheap and powerfull embedded devices available
  • Application containers counter lock in
  • Old hardware with open source software
  • 40% Price decline for a lithium-ion battery pack in an electrical vehicle since 2009
  • Apple is an exception - price discrimination
  • Amount of materials available?
  • IC
  • Raspberry / Andruino / Mobiles get cheaper and cheaper

Open Source

  • Companies contribute actively
  • Easy entry for Startups
  • Open Source Hardware (OCP)
  • Plug and Play for Startups
  • Professional Service, Certificates, Software as a Service
  • No competition via closed source
  • Global Access

Consequence of the global, digital disruption

Workforce

  • New potential workforce in the emerging markets
  • Innovation pressure from startups
  • Trillions of dollars into the global economy
  • Transparency
  • Decentralized Internet Connections
  • Learning / Using all available resources

Decentralized and Digitized

  • Alle nur erdenklichen Informationen werden digital sein
  • New Opportunities
  • The enablers of the digital age
  • Context of this popular technologies/inventions

IoT

  • 1 trillion until 2020

Virtual Reality

  • Virtual Reality layer
  • New forms of collaboration

3D Printing

  • A printer in every home
  • Plans, recipes are -able
  • Algorithm based design

Health care

  • Health data digitalized
  • 3D printed pill available
  • Downloadable recipes
  • Transplants

Crypto Currency

Decentralized, global economy requires decentralized currency Demand for a decentralized currency

"The digitized becomes exponentially empowered"

  • The digitized becomes exponentially empowered
  • Machine Learning Age started in 2006 when CPUs where fast enough

Derive valuable Insights

  • Speech recognition / face recognition (Google)
  • Real time speech translation (Microsoft)
  • Mining health care data to make people become 130 years old (Human Longevity)
  • Mining business data and automate systems
  • Enabled by exponential tech, memory, computation
  • Execution on GPUs (Mass parallel)
  • Primarily Artificial Neural Networks
  • Training of ANN (Back propagation) to fit
  • Deep Learning - automatic feature detection
  • Microsoft showed a real time translator from Chinese to English

Machine Learning in Business

  • ML Startups focusing on Sales, Marketing, Finance (Techcrunch)
  • Automated CRM
  • Workday Machine Learning Ventures

Machine Learning in Science

Bloomberg about Workday Machine Learning Ventures

Enterprise Software

“In the new world it's not the big fish which eats the small fish, it's the fast fish which eats the slow fish.”

Quote by Klaus Schwab

  • Almost no obstacles for startups today
  • Race for digitalization

Trillion Dollar Opportunity

“Every Job is Software-enabled, Every Industry is Digitized”
  • Folge der Digitalisierung
  • Naming by Techcrunch
  • Airware (Drone Operating System)
  • Skycatch (Autonomous drone based construction support)
  • tidemark (Financial Planning and Analytics)
  • zuora (Subscription management)

Business Models in Context of 6D's

Business Models

  • Business Models are adapted to fit into exponential model
  • Data Driven
  • Democratization
  • Data Driven (dig for valuable insights hidden in data)
  • Participative Networked Platforms (support democratization)
  • Companies start as service provider and become data driven
  • Support democratization by platform
  • Democratization not just a cheap platform, also integration into expensive systems

Data Driven

  • Google becomes an insurance company
  • Apple becomes a bank
  • Netflix will earn an academy award for their next movie
  • Google to Alphabet
  • Google becomes a mayor player in the smart city business, like traffic routing
  • Uber is aiming for self driving cars?
  • Uber will be part of the transportation business
  • Apple becomes a Bank?
  • Netflix disrupts cable tv (house of cards)
  • Big Data to get next tv show to match the interest of the people

Democratization as a Business Model

  • Quantiacs (Democratize the Quant Industry)
  • BigML (Democratize Machine Learning)
  • Thinknum (Democratize Financial Analysis)
  • Give access to systems/markets/knowledge
  • Support democratization process
  • Get access to the data

Conclusion

  • As soon as information are digitized their value hops onto the exponential grow curve
  • Companies become more and more data driven
  • Everybody will be turned into an information worker
  • Facing big security and corporate espionage risks

Questions

  • What general challenges do you see in the future?
  • What might be the biggest disruption in general?
  • What might be the biggest disruption for our business?

Thanks for your attention

Questions, discussions?

Sources

Context for 10X Created by David Dornseifer