Climate, Farming and Migration:

Dynamic Livelihoods in the Nepali Tarai

Pre-submission presentation23 October 2015

Outline

Research dissemination

1. Context of the research

• The Tarai has a history of dealing with environmental and socio-economic challanges
• Additional challanges due to environmental change
• Finding ways in which the environment and the people adapt
• Contribution
  • planned adaptation to increase resilience
  • establishes mobility as a form of adaptation
  • assesses the climatic impact in the Tarai using daily records and compares with local perception

Study locations

Study sites

Background on Nepali plains - the Tarai

• Tarai has been a destination of in-migrants moving from the hills since the 1960s (Gurung, 1989; Kansakar, 1985)
• Tarai has also witnessed massive socio-ecological change
  • Forest clearing and malaria eradication
  • Agricultural extensification to feed the nation
  • Urbanization
  • Tarai is also seen as a region neglected by the central government (Majumdar, 2006); marginalized communities have been left out of the decision making process in resource management including community forestry (Gauli & Rishi, 2004)
  • Shares open border with India

Background on Nepali plains - the Tarai

Historic internal migration pattern based on prior residenceMap usage subject to Google Maps API Terms of Service (http://developers.google.com/maps/terms)

Household characteristics

2. Theoretical conceptualizations

• Vulnerability, adaptation and resilience
• Reflexive modernization in the Tarai

Adaptation interface framework

adapted from Mbow et al. (2008)

Reflexive modernization in the Tarai

• Beck’s (1992) reflexive modernization theory illustrates how individuals will increasingly become aware of the risks associated with modernization, question expert opinions, respond to risks, and join movements to push forward new priorities and policies
• it is clear from the action of the farmers that they are actively changing their practices by utilizing national and international networks
• can be seen as the signs of a transition in process - transition from modernity towards reflexive modernity

3. Methodology and methods

• Research framework utilizing both quantitative and qualitative tools
• Unit of analysis
• Sample selection and data analysis

Overall framework of the research

Unit of analysis

• Case study/comparative study - Municapility/wards
• Questionnaire survey – demographic details; socioeconomic details; livelihood strategies; motivation for livelihood strategies - Household
• Perception of changes in climatic variables and environmental resource indicators - Individual

Sample selection

4. Perception and impacts

• Perception of climate change
• Perception of trends in agricultural output
• In-situ adaptation examples

Perception of impact from changes in climatic variables

Perception of changes in eleven climatic variables

Perception of impact from changes in climatic variables

In Damak, the perceptions were significantly related to respondents' prior experience with flood χ2(2, N = 143) = 6.6206, p = 0.04

Trends in rainfall

Trend in annual total precipitation (PREPTOT) in three stationsFor Nepalgunj RO, Mann Kendall p = 0.0108, Kendall's Tau =-0.3084 , Sen's slope = -15.8

Rainfall variability

Inter-annual variability in mean monthly rainfall in Tarahara Station (1971 - 2012 aggregate)

Flash floods

• Sediment deposit on the field was the most reported problem from floods
• No mechanism for compensation when land is lost
• Only 18 respondents had received any form of relief
• No insurance mechanism

Rainfall variability during monsoon

• Monsoon onset day:any rainy day after 1st June with total rainfall of three consecutive days exceeding 30 mm. A day is counted as a rainy day if there is a rainfall of at least 0.85 mm
• Dry spell days:at least 7 consecutive days of no rainfall after commencement of monsoon
• Successful plantation days: no dry-spell days in 30 days after the monsoon onset date (Karmacharya 2010)

Monsoon onset day and dry spell days

Dry spell days, monsoon onset day and successful plantation day for Damak station for years 2000 to 200453% respondents had experienced drought in the last 5-7 years

Monsoon onset day and dry spell days

Cropping calendar

Cropping calendar for major crops in Tarai showing daily rainfall (blue) and daily minimum temperature (magenta)

Perception of trends in agricultural output

The respones were not significantly related with respondents' prior experience with flood or, with respondents' family having a migrant member or not

Climate impact and agricultural yield

5. Negiotating livelihoods in the Tarai

• Resillient livelihoods maintained through
  • Coping
  • In-situ adaptation
  • Ex-situ adaptation

Coping and adaptation

In-situ adaptation examples

• Farming of high value crops along the river banks when it is dry
  • Requires constant safeguard
  • No legal entitlement
  • Land prone to flooding

In-situ adaptation examples

• Procuring fodder and firewood
  • Forests in the Tarai are highly protected now compared to in the past when it used to be a common pool resource
  • Not all families can afford the payment and have resorted to fetching firewood from across the border
  • During flooding period, locals collect trees and branches brought by the flood.

In-situ adaptation examples

• Hiring paid labour for agriculture
  • Labour from outside of the family needed
  • Upfront investment for planting, transplanting and harvesting labour

Agricultural infrastructure

• Irrigation system: only small percentage with access to canals, and the structure has not been properly maintained
• Electricity: supply is not constant, up to 18 hours per day load shedding
• Cost barrier: cost of pump, cost of bore hole, cost of fuel, cost of pipe and cost of labour
• Only 3 respondents out of 294 had started harvesting a new crop in the last 5 years

6. Human mobility and resilience in the Tarai

• Contemporary destinations
• Demographics
• Migrant households' narratives
• Migration characteristics

Contemporary destinations for migrant workers

Destination regions of migrant members from surveyed householdsone arc represents one migrant from surveyed households

Migrant Households' narratives

• Economic reasons - inadequate income from local jobs
• Adhiya system of land tenure by which the poor or the landless use farmlands and pay half of the produce in return
• Farm income does not enable households to accure assets, remittance on the other hand, if successful yields much higher earnings

Choice of destinations of migrants from surveyed households

Migrants' age, education and years in foreign employment

SE Asia, especially Malaysia has become the destination of choice for most migrants from the Tarai

Formal education of migrants

Migrants to new international destinations have higher median education

Remittances by destination

Remittances from new international destinations are significantly more than from traditional destinations. National GPD per capita for 2013 was USD 694 (World Bank, 2014)

Use of remittances

For most families, remittance is an essential income source for household activities

7. Implications and summary of findings

• This study combines the physical evidence on environmental changes with the perception of such changes - this could be a framework for understanding and planning for adaptation
• This research establishes migration as a vital form of adaptation for Tarai farmers which should be mainstreamed into state policies.
• By tapping on the trans-local network, the resilience of migrants' household and the community is expected to be strengthened

Findings summary

• There is no significant decline in cultivation in migrants' households as the remaining members continute farming and livestock practice
• Labour migration opportunities remain the most important factor in household decision making. Low winter rainfall and failure of irrigation systems prompted some farmer to leave land fallow during the winter of 2013/14
• Migrants going to India and the Middle East have significantly lower formal education compared to internal migrants and migrants going to new destinations in SE Asia. This agrees with findings from Findlay (2011) and Massey et al. (1993)

Findings summary

• Tarai’s agricultural system has been under stress for decades from the environment and its inability to modernize
• In a continual attempt to seek for new ways to adapt, farmers look for on-farm and, off-farm solutions which are increasingly becoming global
• The popularity of international destinations disagrees with the theories that most of the environmental change initiated movements will be within national/regional boundaries (Findlay, 2011) perhaps because to the established international networks and any pressure due to environmental change simply reinforces these.
• Since the use of remittances for basic household activities and the fact that remittance income is disproportionately larger than income made at home, the trend in foreign employment is expected to continue

8. Limitations and future directions

• Climate data analysis was limited to three decades
• The analysis could include government policies and plans